Today I saw an interesting tweet from Jennifer Ablan:
And based on a daily move like this…
you get the impression there’s a divergence. Stocks have a gangbuster move to the upside while bond yields have been moving lower. Is Goldilocks appearing again? Hardly.
But I had a response for her:
Yes, I cited Japan as the example. But I don’t think they’re going to be alone. Indeed, there are a couple of ways to look at inflation. One is just prices paid and you can use the Consumer Price Index or the Personal Consumption Expenditure index. Well, by either measure, they’re headed lower:
PCE hasn’t fallen the way CPI has but they are both still going lower. Why? Because as Steve Keen demonstrated with his Minsky-based approach, aggregate demand is falling because private debt is collapsing and unemployment is rising:
And the 2/10 spread has responded in kind:
One point I’d make is that when you step back and see what’s going on in bonds, unemployment, inflation and debt is there could be a new feedback loop between these things that has taken root. I don’t know the mechanics of it, but I’d say there’s a link between these phenomena going on.
And it isn’t pretty. Just ask the Japanese how well things turned out for them the last 20 years…