This is a good perspective to have on the markets these days. I have a slight disagreement with it, but my disagreement doesn’t detract from what Woodrow says:
On a SECULAR basis, I’m as bearish as I was a year ago. I share many of the same concerns that friends like Gregor and Roger do. Ballooning sovereign debt levels, runaway printing presses for most currencies, maturing populations, scarce resources and an impossibly difficult push/pull between deflation and hyper inflation are but a few issues looming. But investing strictly on the concerns I have longer term would’ve been disastrous this year.woodrow.typepad.com, The Ponderings of Woodrow, Dec 2009
If you have a 1 year horizon, I agree. A bearish viewpoint would have had bad results. But what if your timeframes are 3 years? 5 years? Mine are longer term. Which is why I moved all of my holdings to cash & Treasuries in late ’06. Because I felt like the metrics weren’t lined up for a bullish viewpoint 3 years out (i.e. now).
Having said that, I’m getting a little impatient and wanting to play offense again. But the secular view Woodrow cites doesn’t help.